Best Bet
Cleveland Browns to win at $2.10. The Browns have won three in a row and are still underdogs against a Jets team that has lost three in a row. New York are also without running back Breece Hall. We think the wrong team is favourite. This is a medium-strength bet.
The reasoning
Cleveland are 3-1 and beat Pittsburgh 27-24 last week. Deshaun Watson has been playing well, and the Browns have found ways to win close games.
The Jets are 1-3 and were poor in a 23-12 loss to Chicago. They gained only 157 total yards and went 0 from 7 on third down. Now Breece Hall and receiver Adonai Mitchell have both been ruled out, which leaves them with even less in attack.
The market has the Jets as small favourites, by 1.5 to 2.5 points, mainly because they are at home. Most projections have this within three points either way, so $2.10 for the team in better form is good value.
Main danger: Cleveland’s defence is giving up 23.8 points a game, so the Jets could still score enough at home. If this is as close as expected, a late field goal could decide it.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Cleveland Browns to win - better form, and the Jets have key players missing.
- Over 39.5 total points - Cleveland give up 23.8 a game, and the projections we have seen are between 43 and 44 points.
- Cleveland Browns 20+ points - the projections have them scoring 20 to 21, and they scored 27 last week.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
- Main bet: Browns head to head at $2.10.
- Safer option: Browns +2.5 at $1.90 covers you if they lose by a field goal or less.
- SGM: Small stake only.
- Kick-off is 4:00am AEDT on Monday at MetLife Stadium.
