Best Bet
Tennessee Titans +7.5 at $1.90. We think Houston will get their first win, but 7.5 points is a big start to give away on the road. The Texans have not covered a line all season. This is a medium-strength bet.
The reasoning
Both teams are 0-4, but the market still prices Houston on last season, when they reached the second round of the playoffs. C.J. Stroud threw for 347 yards against Dallas last week, and Nico Collins scored two touchdowns when he returned, so the attack is getting better.
The problem is the Texans defence. It is giving up 27.2 points a game, which makes it hard to win by more than a touchdown. Tennessee have scored fewer than 14 points a game, but this is the right matchup for them to score more.
When these teams met twice last season, Houston won once by 26 and once by three. We expect something closer to the second game. Most projections have Houston winning by two to five points.
Main danger: If Tennessee’s attack is as poor as it has been, Houston could win easily. The Titans are also missing safety Amani Hooker, who is in concussion protocol, and Jeffery Simmons has been limited at training.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Houston Texans to win - the better team, and the projections all have them winning.
- Tennessee Titans +7.5 - we expect a margin of less than a touchdown.
- Over 38.5 total points - Houston concede 27.2 a game, and the projections we have seen are between 40 and 43 points.
Legs 1 and 2 together need Houston to win by 1-7 points.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
- Main bet: Titans +7.5 at $1.90.
- Value option: The Titans are around $4.00 to win outright, which is worth a very small bet.
- SGM: Small stake only.
- Kick-off is 4:00am AEDT on Monday at Nissan Stadium.
