The tip
Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 at $1.88. Pittsburgh played better in Week 3 than Cleveland did, and we think they can win by a field goal or more on the road. This is a short-week divisional game with a low total, though, so we suggest small stakes.
The reasoning
After three weeks, all four AFC North teams are 2-1, so the winner of this game takes the lead in the division.
Pittsburgh’s win over Cincinnati was their best game of the season. They changed their offensive line before the game, and it worked. They rushed for 138 yards at six yards a carry, and Aaron Rodgers was sacked only twice after taking a lot of hits in Week 2. With more time to throw, he completed passes to nine different receivers. Running back Jaylen Warren had 176 total yards. The defence has also been forcing mistakes, with two takeaways against the Bengals and six for the season.
Cleveland’s Week 3 win over Carolina was less convincing. They were outgained by more than 100 yards and needed a late roughing-the-passer penalty, which cancelled an interception, to set up their comeback. Their defence played well, holding Carolina to 4.9 yards per play and making three sacks, so the Steelers’ offensive line will be tested. Deshaun Watson has been inconsistent in his last two games and now faces a Steelers defence that plays a lot of zone coverage.
This game is not covered by our usual Australian NFL sources yet. The line and total here come from US markets, where Pittsburgh are 2.5-point favourites and the total is only 38 to 38.5.
Main danger: It is a short week for a veteran quarterback, and the Browns have a strong pass rush. If Pittsburgh’s line struggles, this could be a low-scoring game decided by one field goal. A 2.5-point line gives very little margin, which is why our confidence here is lower than usual.
How we’d play it
- Main bet: Steelers -2.5 at $1.88, with small stakes.
- Total: We lean towards the under, but we do not have a current under price to quote, so check it before betting. The under has landed in 22 of the last 36 regular-season games between these teams, and the long-range forecast gives about a 43% chance of showers with gusts of up to 22mph in Cleveland.
- Kick-off: Friday 2 October, 10:15am AEST. Check the weather and the final injury reports before betting. If the rain arrives, the under becomes the stronger option.
