Best Bet
Under 48.5 total points at $1.83. We are more confident about the total than about the winner. This is a medium-strength bet, not one of our best of the week.
The reasoning
The research on the result is split. The Saints are $1.66 favourites and giving 2.5 points at home. Two of our three sources have New Orleans winning by four to seven points. The third has the Falcons winning by a point, mainly because Atlanta have won three of the last four games between these teams. When good sources disagree like that, we would rather not pick a side at a short price.
The total is different. Two of our sources project well under the line, at 44 and 45 points. The Falcons have scored 17 points a game this season. They put 35 on the Packers last week, but they only scored 16 points across their first two games combined, and two of their three games have finished under this total.
The Saints’ attack is the main risk. They are scoring 27 points a game, and Tyler Shough has thrown the ball well. But New Orleans have lost running back Travis Etienne to injured reserve, which puts more pressure on Shough against a Falcons pass rush that has been effective. Atlanta also have good reasons to keep the ball on the ground with Bijan Robinson, which slows the game down.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Under 48.5 total points - our Best Bet.
- Saints to win - two of our three sources have New Orleans winning, and they are at home. A Saints win in a game around 24-20 fits with the under.
- Juwan Johnson anytime touchdown - the Saints tight end has six red-zone targets and three touchdowns this season, and Atlanta have given up plenty of touchdowns to tight ends.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Make the under your main bet with a normal stake. The SGM is a smaller bet, and the Saints win is its weakest leg because the Falcons have the better recent record in this matchup. Kick-off is not until Tuesday morning our time, so check the final injury reports before you bet.
