Best Bet
Buffalo Bills -6.5 at $1.90. The Bills are 3-0 and play at home against a 1-2 Patriots side whose offence has not reached 21 points in any game this season. We expect Buffalo to win by more than a touchdown. This is a medium-strength bet: we like the Bills to cover, but 6.5 points is close to a fair line, and a late Patriots score could still beat it.
The reasoning
Buffalo’s offence is too strong for New England’s. The Bills are averaging 33.7 points a game and have scored at least 24 every week. They beat the Texans 36-31 in Houston, the Lions 41-31, and the Chargers 24-16 despite turning the ball over five times. Josh Allen has thrown for 786 yards through three weeks, and that does not include his rushing.
The Patriots are not scoring. New England have scored 12 points a game, with a 6-35 loss in Jacksonville last week and a 10-13 loss in Seattle in Week 1. Their only win was 20-3 over the Steelers. Drake Maye finished second in MVP voting last season, but he has already thrown six interceptions and been sacked nine times behind an offensive line hit by injuries. It is hard to see that turning around on the road in Buffalo.
Why it is not a stronger bet. These two split their last four meetings 2-2, and each team won once on the other’s home field, so this rivalry has not followed the form guide. Buffalo’s defence has also given up 26 points a game, which lets an opponent stay close. One of the models we checked has the Bills winning by six, right on the line. The other previews we read back the Bills to cover, and the Patriots’ offence is the main reason we agree. Injury reports land on Saturday morning our time, so check New England’s offensive list before betting.
The head-to-head price is too short. At $1.29, there is no value in the Bills straight up, so the line is the better bet.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Buffalo Bills to win - they are unbeaten, at home, and have scored at least 24 points every week.
- Total points over 48.5 - two of the Bills’ three games have finished well above this (67 and 72 points), and their defence is conceding 26 a game.
- Drake Maye to throw an interception - he has six in three games and is under pressure behind an injured offensive line.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Make Bills -6.5 the main bet and use a normal stake. The SGM is a smaller-stakes add-on. Legs two and three need Buffalo’s defence to keep giving up points while also forcing Maye into mistakes, so it is more volatile than the line bet. If New England’s injury list is worse than expected, the line looks better and the overs leg looks weaker, so reconsider leg two before kick-off.
