Best Bet
Over 38.5 total points at $1.90. This is a solid bet rather than one of our strongest this week. The Vikings should win, but the 10.5-point line looks about right, so the total is where we see value.
The reasoning
Minnesota are 3-0. They beat the Packers 39-22, the Bears 9-3 and the Buccaneers 23-16. Their defence has been excellent, conceding 13.7 points a game, which is second in the league, and they are the best team in the NFL at stopping third downs.
Miami are 0-3 and have not covered a line yet. They lost 13-27 to the Raiders, 13-35 to the 49ers and 10-24 to the Chiefs. They are scoring only 12 points a game and conceding 28.7, and they have now lost running back De’Von Achane for the season.
So why the over on such a low total? The Dolphins defence is giving up almost 29 points a game on its own, so the Vikings can get most of the way to 38.5 by themselves. One of our research sources projects the total in the mid-40s, and a 28-18 type result clears it easily.
The main risk is the Vikings attack. Justin Jefferson has been ruled out with an ankle injury, and Minnesota rank last in the league in yards per play. Their 9-3 win in Chicago shows how ugly their games can get. If the Vikings get an early lead and sit on it, this could stay under.
Our sources are split on the line. One prefers the Vikings to cover 10.5 and another prefers the Dolphins with the start. That is a good reason to leave the line alone.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Vikings to win - they are unbeaten with an elite defence, and the Dolphins have not won a game.
- Over 38.5 total points - our Best Bet, for the reasons above.
- Jordan Addison anytime touchdown - with Jefferson out, Addison steps up as the Vikings’ number one receiver, and one of our research sources picked him to score.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Make the over your main bet with a normal stake. The SGM is a smaller bet for extra return. The Addison leg is the riskiest, because the Vikings offence has struggled to create big plays. If you want a safer multi, use just the first two legs.
