Best Bet
Over 47.5 total points at $1.98. We are more confident about the total than about which team wins. Neither defence has stopped anyone through three weeks, and this game is on a neutral field in London. This is a medium-strength bet.
The reasoning
Both teams are 1-2 and both have the same problem. Washington are conceding 30.7 points a game and Indianapolis are conceding 30.3. On the other side of the ball, the Commanders are scoring 25.0 points a game and the Colts 24.0. Put those numbers together and a total in the high 40s looks low.
Washington’s results back that up. They lost 22-24 to the Eagles, lost 20-37 to the Cowboys and then beat the Seahawks 33-31. All three of those games would have gone over this line. The Colts have had a similar pattern, losing 23-41 to the Ravens and 30-33 to the Chiefs before a lower-scoring 19-17 win over the Texans.
On the result, the Colts are 3.5-point favourites and our research sources split on that line. One rates the game as close to a coin flip, with the Colts winning by about a point. The other two have Indianapolis winning by three points or more. We lean to the Colts winning but would not give 3.5 points, which is another reason we prefer the total.
London games add a little uncertainty. Both teams have travelled, so neither gets a home crowd, and final injury reports are not out until late in the week.
Main danger: London games can start slowly as teams settle after the long trip. One model has this finishing around 44 points. If either defence plays its best game of the season, the under is a real risk.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Over 47.5 total points - both defences are allowing more than 30 points a game.
- Indianapolis Colts to win - most of our sources have the Colts winning, even though they disagree on the margin.
- Daniel Jones over 11.5 rushing yards - one projection model rates this as its best value play in the game, and Jones runs the ball regularly.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
- Main bet: Over 47.5 at $1.98.
- If you want the result: The Colts head to head is about $1.49. That is short, so we would only use it in the multi.
- SGM: Small stake. The Colts win is the leg most likely to let you down, because this game could easily go either way.
- Kick-off is 12:30am AEDT on Monday morning in London. Check the final injury reports before betting, as they are released late.
