Best Bet
Los Angeles Rams to win at $1.62. The Rams are 3.5-point favourites on the road. We think they win, but we expect a close game, so we prefer the head-to-head price to giving up more than a field goal. This is a medium-strength bet.
The reasoning
The Rams are 1-2, but their record looks worse than their form. They lost 27-7 to the 49ers in Week 1 in a game played in Australia, beat the Giants 28-6, and then lost 30-26 in Denver last Sunday night. In that Denver game the defence allowed only 257 yards at 4.3 yards per play, and turnovers decided it. Leading receiver Puka Nacua is expected to return this week for Matthew Stafford.
The Eagles are 2-1, but they have not covered the line in any of their three games. They beat Washington 24-22 and Tennessee 24-20, then lost 27-7 to Chicago on Monday night. The offence is the problem. It ranks 28th in the league for success rate per play and 27th for first downs per game, and the team is averaging 18.3 points. The offensive line gave up two sacks and several penalties against the Bears, and the Eagles have averaged less than a touchdown in the second half of their games.
Philadelphia are rarely underdogs at home. When they have been since 2020, they have lost eight of nine. They also have a short week after playing on Monday night.
The case for the Eagles is their record in this fixture. They have won the last three meetings with the Rams, including a playoff game, and scored 33 against them at home last season. The Rams are also playing a second straight road game, with an early kick-off for a West Coast team.
The two detailed previews we read for this game both expect the Rams to win. One model has the margin at only two points, which would not cover 3.5. That is why we are betting the head-to-head and not the line.
Main danger: The Eagles keep winning close games, and they have had the Rams’ measure recently. If the Rams turn the ball over again as they did in Denver, Philadelphia can win this at home.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
We could only ground two legs for this game, so this is a 2-leg multi and not our usual three. We do not have a real player line to quote, and we will not guess one.
SGM (2 legs):
- Los Angeles Rams to win - the better offence, against an Eagles attack ranked 28th for success rate.
- Total points under - the line is 43.5 to 44.5 depending on the bookmaker. The Eagles average 18.3 points and the Rams 20.3, the Rams’ defence played well in Denver, and there is a chance of rain on Sunday afternoon in Philadelphia.
The two previews we read disagree on the total. One has the game going over 43.5 because the Eagles are conceding 23 points a game. The other leans under 44.5 because of the Rams’ defence and the Eagles’ second-half scoring. We side with the under, but it is the weaker of the two legs.
Combined price: $3.60
How we’d play it
- Main bet: Rams head-to-head at $1.62.
- If you want the Eagles: Eagles +3.5 is $1.90. It wins if the Rams win by a field goal or less, which is a realistic result.
- Total: The total is 43.5, with the over and the under both $1.90. We lean under.
- Kick-off is Monday 5 October at 4:00am AEDT. Final injury reports come out on Saturday morning Australian time. Check that Nacua is confirmed to play, and check the weather forecast, before betting.
