Best Bet
Brisbane Bullets to win at $2.31. Perth are favoured on the road, but their recent form does not justify the price. The Wildcats have lost three of their last four, including home defeats to Sydney and bottom side Illawarra. They have also lost the first quarter in five straight games. Brisbane have won three of their last five and are coming off a 96-89 win in Adelaide with a short-handed roster. At better than two-to-one at home, the Bullets are the value side. Perth’s depth means this is a fair-sized rather than a big bet.
The reasoning
Brisbane are 5-5 despite a long injury list. Arnas Velicka, Jacob Holt and Sam McDaniel were already missing before the Adelaide win, and Max Mackinnon (concussion) and Lat Mayen also sat out that game. They still won comfortably, shooting 13 of 37 from three while holding Adelaide to 6 of 32. Tyrell Harrison had 24 points and 10 rebounds before fouling out late. Nate Hinton added 18 points, seven rebounds and six assists, and Raul Neto ran the offence well. Brisbane also lead the league in rebounding with more than 47 boards a game.
Perth are 5-4, but they played eight of their first nine games at home and are only now starting a run of road games. Their only previous away game this season was a loss in Sydney. Jo Lual-Acuil Jr is still out with a calf injury, which leaves the frontcourt light against Harrison. Brandon Knight, Elijah Pepper and Kristian Doolittle give Perth plenty of scoring, and the Wildcats have won five of the last six meetings, so they are a danger if they start well.
Perth are 3.5-point favourites, with the total set at 190.5. Some respected judges still like the Wildcats to cover the line, so this is not a one-sided game. But Perth keep giving up early leads, and Brisbane should have a clear edge in the paint.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Brisbane Bullets to win - better recent form, home court and a clear rebounding edge against a Perth frontcourt missing Lual-Acuil Jr.
- Tyrell Harrison 17+ points - had 24 points and 10 rebounds last start, and Perth have no specialist big man to slow him.
- Taine Murray 3+ made threes - has hit four and five threes in his last two games from 22 attempts, with more shots available while Mackinnon is out.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Back the Bullets head to head at a normal stake. If you want a smaller second bet, Brisbane to win the first quarter suits a Perth side that has been slow out of the blocks. Keep the SGM stake small. Tip-off is listed for 8pm Brisbane time at Nissan Arena, but check your bookmaker for the exact start time.
