Best Bet
Los Angeles Clippers +2.5 at $1.90. Golden State have won three in a row, but Steph Curry and Draymond Green are both out. Curry is one of the league’s highest-usage starters, and the Warriors went 13-26 without him last season. The Clippers have won eight of the last ten meetings and have held three of their five opponents this season under 110 points. They are a speculative play after a 1-4 start, so keep the stake modest.
The reasoning
The Warriors are 2.5-point favourites at home, with the total at 221.5. Their defensive rating of 115.3 sits in the bottom third of the league. Without Green, they lose their main defensive organiser. Curry and Green have also combined for 11.2 assists a game, so Golden State will lean on Brandin Podziemski as lead guard. He returns from back soreness with five or more assists in three straight games. Rookie Yaxel Lendeborg is averaging 7.8 rebounds and has nine or more in four of his last five.
The Clippers have lost four straight, and they are missing key starters as well. Their attack is the real weakness. They average 105.4 points, the second-lowest in the NBA. Darius Garland is their main creator, and rookie Keaton Wagler has been a strong scorer off the bench at 14.4 points a game, drawing 20 free throws over his last two games. They went 14-10 against the line as road underdogs last season.
With two short-handed teams, the Clippers’ low scoring, and the under hitting in seven of the last ten meetings, we expect a grinding game. That suits the team getting the start.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Los Angeles Clippers to win - eight wins from the last ten meetings, against a Warriors side missing its two most important players.
- Under 221.5 total points - two short-handed teams, the Clippers score only 105.4 a game, and the under is 7-3 in the last ten meetings.
- Yaxel Lendeborg 8+ rebounds - averaging 7.8 a game with nine or more in four of his last five, and Green’s absence frees up more boards.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
This is a lower-confidence play, so the Clippers at the line should be a small stake only. The under 221.5 at $1.90 is a reasonable alternative if you would rather not pick a side. Keep the SGM stake small. Tip-off is 12:30pm AEDT on Monday 2 November at Chase Center, so check that the late injury news hasn’t changed the line before betting.
