Best Bet
Golden State Warriors -9.5 at $1.90. Golden State started the season 0-3 but have won their last seven, including the first five games of this home stand. Stephen Curry is averaging 33.8 points during the streak and scored 41 against Orlando last time out. New Orleans have lost two straight and are playing a second game in two nights after conceding 139 points to the Clippers on Sunday. The Warriors are 7-1 against the line in their last eight games, and this is one of our stronger NBA plays today.
The reasoning
Golden State have been strong at both ends during this run. Over their last seven games they rank second for offensive rating, sixth for defensive rating, and first for three-point shooting at 41.9%. They are also moving the ball well, averaging 31 assists a game over that stretch.
New Orleans have one of the worst defences in the league, and tired legs on the second night of a back-to-back will not help. Zion Williamson is their main threat. He is shooting 62.8% from the field, made all nine of his shots against the Clippers for 25 points, and has scored at least 23 in three of his last four games. He can score his points, but New Orleans are unlikely to keep up with Golden State.
The main risk with a 9.5-point line is a late fade. If the Warriors build a big lead, Curry may rest in the fourth quarter and New Orleans could close the gap against the bench.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Golden State Warriors -9.5 - they are 7-1 against the line in their last eight games, and New Orleans are tired after playing last night.
- Draymond Green 7+ assists - he averages 7.8 assists this season, had 11 against Miami recently, and the total is high at 232.5.
- Zion Williamson 20+ points - he is shooting 62.8% and has scored 23 or more in three of his last four games.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Back the Warriors at the line at a normal stake. Williamson’s points and Green’s assists also work as small single bets if you would rather avoid the line. Tip-off is about 2:00pm AEDT on Tuesday (10:00pm Monday US Eastern time) at Chase Center in San Francisco.
