Best Bet
San Antonio Spurs -8.5 at $1.90. The Spurs are 4-0 on the road and have won six of their last eight games by 10 points or more. They are a top-10 team for both points scored and points allowed. Phoenix are 2-6 against the line, have conceded 120 or more points five times, and are without Mark Williams. That leaves them short of size against Victor Wembanyama. This is one of our stronger NBA plays today.
The reasoning
Phoenix have won a few games since starting 1-5, including against Houston on Saturday. This is a much tougher match-up for them. San Antonio allow the fewest three-point attempts in the league, and Wembanyama protects the rim, so Phoenix will find it hard to score either inside or outside.
Rebounding should also favour San Antonio. Phoenix rank last for rebounds per game and give up almost 15 offensive rebounds a night. Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and Keldon Johnson should get plenty of second chances. San Antonio are averaging 118.4 points a game, and their bench is deep enough to stretch a lead in the second half.
Dylan Harper is averaging 18.1 points on 50% shooting in his second season and has gone over 16.5 points in four of his last five games. With Devin Vassell out, he should play more minutes. The main risk is a big shooting night from Devin Booker, who has hit his three-point target in five straight games.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- San Antonio Spurs -8.5 - they have won six of their last eight by 10 or more, and Phoenix are short of size without Williams.
- Dylan Harper over 16.5 points - he has gone over this line in four of his last five games and should play more with Vassell out.
- Stephon Castle 2+ three-pointers - defenders are leaving him open, and he has made two or more threes in three of his last four games.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Back the Spurs at the line at a normal to slightly higher stake. Miles Bridges over 6.5 rebounds is a reasonable small bet on the Phoenix side. He has 10 or more rebounds in three of his last five games, and Phoenix will need everyone to help on the boards. Note that the under has landed in seven of San Antonio’s 10 games, so we would not bet the over. Tip-off is 1:00pm AEDT on Tuesday (9:00pm Monday US Eastern time) in Phoenix.
