Best Bet
Houston Rockets -8.5 at $1.90. Houston are 7-3 and have one of the best ratings in the league once strength of schedule is taken into account. Only San Antonio rate higher. They also have a clear edge on the boards. They rank fourth in offensive rebounds and well above Denver for total rebounding, so they should get plenty of second chances. Houston have covered in four of their last five home games, and their shooting efficiency ranks fifth in the league. The line is big, so this is a solid bet rather than a standout.
The reasoning
Houston’s extra possessions from rebounding are only useful if they score from them, and their fifth-ranked true shooting percentage says they do. Denver have a specific weakness that suits Houston. They rank last in the league at defending catch-and-shoot jump shots and 29th against spot-up shots, and they give up the second-most spot-up points in the NBA.
Jabari Smith Jr. benefits most from that. He is averaging 17.3 points a game and shooting 47.5% from three, and almost half of his baskets come from catch-and-shoot chances. Alperen Sengun is running the offence well, averaging 8.6 assists over his last five games. He should play more minutes while Clint Capela is out.
The main risk is the size of the line. Denver can stay within nine points if their shots are falling, so keep the stake normal rather than big.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Houston Rockets -8.5 - they win the rebounding battle and shoot efficiently, and they have covered in four of their last five home games.
- Jabari Smith Jr. over 2.5 three-pointers - he averages 3.5 threes a game and has gone over this line in five of six games against teams that allow plenty of three-point attempts.
- Alperen Sengun 7+ assists - he has averaged 8.6 assists over his last five games and should get extra minutes with Capela out.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Back Houston at the line as the main bet at a normal stake. Smith Jr. over 2.5 threes is the best single player bet in this game because Denver defend spot-up shooters so poorly. Tip-off is about 12:00pm AEDT on Tuesday (8:00pm Monday US Eastern time) in Houston. Check the late injury news before betting.
