Wednesday’s NBA slate for Australian viewers has six games. Milwaukee at New York starts at 11:30am AEDT, and Oklahoma City at Portland finishes the day from 3:00pm AEDT. Our best bet is the total in the Knicks game. Two more Unders make up the rest of our picks, because several of today’s teams are relying on their defence. Check the injury news before tip-off, especially Tyler Herro for Milwaukee and Lauri Markkanen for Utah.
Best Bet
Bucks v Knicks Under 220.5 at $1.90. New York play at the slowest pace in the NBA, averaging 97.2 possessions a game, and they concede a league-low 104.2 points. Milwaukee are 1-9, have lost six straight, and score only 108.4 points a game. The Knicks are not a high-scoring team either, at 109.9 points a game, which ranks 23rd. The Under has also landed in Milwaukee’s last four games as underdogs. We expect New York to control the tempo and keep this a low-scoring game. This is a solid bet rather than a standout one.
The reasoning
Milwaukee were beaten by 20 points by Boston in their last game, and Herro is questionable with a knee injury. If he misses, the Bucks lose one of their few reliable scorers. New York’s defence ranks seventh, against Milwaukee’s 28th, and the Knicks are heavy favourites. We prefer the total to the big line, because a blowout can still finish under 220.5 at this pace.
Jalen Brunson is New York’s main scorer. He is averaging 26.2 points and scored 33 and 31 in his last two games. He has also been taking many more threes, with at least 10 attempts in four of his last five games, and has made 43.8% of them in that run. Milwaukee have struggled against opposing guards from three-point range.
The main risk to the Under is Milwaukee’s poor defence. If the Knicks shoot well early, they could score enough on their own to push the total over.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- New York Knicks to win - Milwaukee are 1-9 and have lost six straight, while New York have one of the league’s best defences.
- Under 220.5 total points - the Knicks play at the slowest pace in the league and concede the fewest points.
- Jalen Brunson over 2.5 three-pointers - he has gone over this line in each of his last five games and is shooting 43.8% from three in that run.
Combined price: $6.80
Other picks on the slate
- Clippers v Suns Under 224.5 ($1.90). The Clippers rank 21st in offensive rating and score 8.4 fewer points a game on the road. Phoenix play slowly and are one of the best teams at stopping fast breaks. Phoenix have stayed under the total in 59% of their home games over the last three seasons. Phoenix are also on the second night of a back-to-back after playing San Antonio.
- Thunder v Trail Blazers Under 224.5 ($1.90). Injuries have weakened Oklahoma City’s attack, and the Under is 7-3 in their games this season. Portland had a top-10 defence before two recent losses and have had three days to prepare. Both teams are in the top eight for fewest points allowed in the paint. The Trail Blazers have also gone under in 59% of their games as underdogs since the start of last season.
We are leaving Celtics v 76ers alone. Boston are the better attacking team, but they are on the first night of a back-to-back and are changing their starting line-up. The market has this game very close, so we do not have a clear bet. In Jazz v Heat, Miami are the obvious side if Markkanen misses, but we would wait for team news before betting.
How we’d play it
The Bucks-Knicks Under is the main bet at a normal stake. The Clippers-Suns and Thunder-Trail Blazers Unders are sound second bets at smaller stakes, and all three are similar bets, so do not overload on them. Keep the SGM stake small. Tip-off times are 11:30am AEDT for Bucks-Knicks, about 2:00pm AEDT for Clippers-Suns and 3:00pm AEDT for Thunder-Trail Blazers.
