Best Bet
Tasmania JackJumpers -5.5 at $1.90. Tasmania are 7-3 and have won three of their last four. They beat South East Melbourne 98-89 on Sunday with only seven players. New Zealand have lost four in a row and are 4-7, and they score 90.5 points a game, the lowest in the NBL. Tasmania have also won the last three meetings, including 98-92 in Hobart on 18 October. The line should be around five and a half, and we think Tasmania can win by more. Their injury list is the reason this is a normal stake rather than a big one.
The reasoning
Tasmania’s depth is the main worry. Majok Deng, Bryce Hamilton and Ben Ayre are out, and Ben Gold and David Johnson missed the Phoenix win. Even so, Dakota Mathias had a season-high 22 points, Taran Armstrong scored 18 and Will Magnay had four blocks. They led by 18 at half-time. Tasmania are second in the league for field-goal percentage, so they are scoring efficiently even with a short bench.
New Zealand were beaten 94-74 by Melbourne United on Monday. They made only 6 of 30 threes and were well beaten on the boards. Parker Jackson-Cartwright is back from injury, which helps, and Carlin Davison had 12 points, seven rebounds and 10 assists in that game. Sam Mennenga gives them a strong big man to test Magnay. They are competitive in most games but keep losing them late.
The venue matters. Games at the Silverdome have averaged about 170 total points over the past three seasons, and Tasmania’s loss to Sydney there totalled only 139. Tasmania’s home record in Launceston is poor, with two wins from 11 games there, which is the main risk to this bet. We still expect a low-scoring game that suits the better defensive team.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Tasmania JackJumpers to win - they have won the last three meetings and play a Breakers side on a four-game losing streak.
- Total points under 187.5 - the Silverdome is a low-scoring venue, and New Zealand score the fewest points in the league.
- Taran Armstrong 20+ points - he scored a career-high 32 against the Breakers last month and has passed 20 three times this season.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Back Tasmania at the line at a normal stake. If you want to avoid the line, Tasmania head to head in a multi is a safer option. Under 187.5 total points is a good second bet on its own, given the venue. Keep the SGM stake small, since the Armstrong leg is the hardest to land. Tip-off is 7:30pm AEDT on Friday at the Silverdome in Launceston.
