Best Bet
Sydney Kings -10.5 at $1.90. This is one of our stronger plays of the round. The Kings have one of the best defences in the league, and the Breakers are missing their main ball-handler. That makes a double-digit Sydney win the most likely result.
The reasoning
Round 5 starts on Wednesday night with an Ignite Cup game at AIS Arena in Canberra. Sydney are the designated home team.
The key news is on the New Zealand side. Parker Jackson-Cartwright missed Saturday’s 100-84 loss in Perth with a lower-leg injury, and the club expects him to miss several weeks, including this game. Josiah-Jordan James and Preston Le Gassick are also listed as unavailable. Without Jackson-Cartwright, the Breakers made 17 turnovers and shot 9 from 28 from three in Perth. Sam Mennenga’s 40 points and 18 rebounds were outstanding, but nobody else could create shots. That loss left New Zealand at 3-3.
Sydney lost for the first time this season on Sunday, 84-78 to Adelaide, in a rematch of last season’s Grand Final. The shooting was the problem: the Kings made only 8 of 28 from three. Their defence still held up. Sydney are conceding 88.0 points a game, the second-best mark in the NBL, and three of their four opponents have scored fewer than 90. Kendric Davis and Bryce Cotton give them more scoring options than any other team. Keli Leaupepe is the only Sydney player listed as unavailable.
Recent history favours Sydney as well. They have won five of the last six meetings, including a 103-62 win in Auckland in January, and lead the all-time series 44-36.
The main risk to the line is a slow, low-scoring game, which is probably the Breakers’ best way to keep this close. Some markets have the line at 9.5, so take the shorter line if you can find it.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Sydney Kings -10.5 - our Best Bet, for the reasons above.
- New Zealand Breakers Under 86.5 team points - they scored 84 in Perth without Jackson-Cartwright, now face a top-two defence and were held to 62 in the last meeting.
- Andrew Carr 7+ rebounds - he is averaging seven a game, and the Breakers are fifth for defensive rebounds allowed to opponents.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Sydney -10.5 is the main bet and is worth a normal stake. The Breakers team total also works well as a single, because Sydney’s defence has held up even when its shooting hasn’t. The three-leg SGM is the smaller, higher-paying option. Legs 1 and 2 go together, since a low New Zealand score and a big Sydney margin come from the same game script.
Tip-off is 7:30pm AEDT. Check the final team lists before you bet, because the price on the line will move if Jackson-Cartwright is cleared.
