Thursday’s NBA slate for Australian viewers includes Philadelphia at Detroit, Chicago at New York and Cleveland at Oklahoma City. Our best bet comes from Detroit, where the Pistons have been one of the most reliable teams against the spread. Check start times and team news with your bookmaker, because late injury news can move these lines.
Best Bet
Detroit Pistons -2.5 at $1.90. Detroit have won 23 of their last 30 games and covered the spread in 18 of their last 25. Philadelphia are only small underdogs, and the line suggests a close game. However, the Pistons have been strong late in games, winning the second half in 31 of their last 40. We expect them to pull away in the final quarter. This is a solid bet rather than a standout one.
The reasoning
The Pistons are $1.84 head to head and the 76ers $2.10, so the market has this close. Philadelphia have won 29 of their last 50, so they are a reasonable team, but their games have gone under the total often. The Over has hit in only 14 of their last 40 games.
Detroit’s record against the spread is the main reason for this bet. Covering 18 of 25 is a strong run, and their second-half record suggests they finish games well. The total is set at 217.5, which is low by NBA standards. That fits with Philadelphia’s run of unders.
The danger is that Philadelphia have been good in the second half too, winning 20 of their last 30, so this is far from certain. Keep the stake normal.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Detroit Pistons -2.5 - the Pistons have covered in 18 of their last 25 games.
- Under 217.5 total points - the Over has hit in only 14 of Philadelphia’s last 40 games.
- Detroit Pistons to win the second half - the Pistons have won the second half in 31 of their last 40 games.
Combined price: $6.80
Other picks on the slate
- Bulls v Knicks Under 232.5 ($1.90). The Under has hit in 29 of New York’s last 45 games and 20 of Chicago’s last 35. The Over has landed in only 16 of the Knicks’ last 45. New York are $1.15 favourites and 7.5-point favourites, but we prefer the total to the short head-to-head price.
- Oklahoma City Thunder to win ($1.75) v Cleveland. The Thunder have won 31 of their last 40 games, while Cleveland have covered the spread in only 10 of their last 35. The Thunder are 2.5-point favourites, and the head-to-head bet is the simpler option.
How we’d play it
Detroit at the line is the main bet at a normal stake. The Knicks-Bulls Under is a sound second bet, and the Thunder suit a multi more than a big single bet. Keep the SGM stake small, and check injury news before tip-off because these games have not yet been previewed in detail.
