Best Bet
Illawarra Hawks +3.5 at $1.90. Cairns are short favourites, but this matchup has been close. Illawarra have won three of their last five meetings with Cairns, three of their last four trips to Cairns and their last two road games, including a 105-98 win in Perth on Saturday. The Taipans rank last in the league for rebounds and concede more than 96 points a game, so the Hawks’ offence should score. We would rather take the start than the Hawks head to head.
The reasoning
Illawarra are only 3-8, and their defence has been poor, conceding a league-high 104.5 points a game. That is why they are underdogs. But they average more than 96 points, which ranks fourth in the competition, and their win in Perth showed they can beat a good side on the road. They hit 13 of 30 threes in that game and won the offensive rebounds 16-11.
Cairns are 5-6 and have won three of four at home, but they have been inconsistent. They lead the league with 22 assists a game, and Jack McVeigh (19 points against United) and Keanu Pinder (16) are in good form. The Taipans won the October meeting 110-100 in Wollongong. However, they allow opponents to shoot almost 48% from the field and rank last for rebounding at 35.6 a game, which suits Illawarra’s big men.
Cairns are rated the better team, and the case for them is fair: they thrashed Brisbane 107-85 recently and have the better defence. Even so, with Illawarra’s good record in Cairns and Cairns’ rebounding problems, we expect a close game. The 3.5-point start gives us some cover if Illawarra lose narrowly.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Illawarra Hawks +3.5 - strong recent record in Cairns, two straight road wins, and Cairns’ rebounding problems should keep this close.
- Makur Maker 15+ points - has reached 15 points in four of his last five games.
- Sam Froling 7+ rebounds - had 10 rebounds in the last meeting with Cairns, who rank last in the league for rebounding.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Take Illawarra at the line at a normal stake. If you want a bigger price, the Hawks head to head is a smaller bet. Keep the SGM stake small. Tip-off is 7:30pm local time on Thursday at the Cairns Convention Centre.
