Best Bet
Over 199.5 total points at $1.90. The 10.5-point line is a hard one to call, but the scoring picture is clearer. Illawarra score plenty and let in even more, and United have the players to take advantage. This is a solid bet rather than our strongest of the round.
The reasoning
Melbourne United are 3-3 and have won their last two, beating Adelaide away and then the Phoenix 104-99. Josh Oduro had 22 points, four steals and four blocks in the Phoenix game, and Cole Anthony is drawing a lot of fouls when he attacks the basket, averaging more than 10 free-throw attempts a game. Luke Travers and Joe Ingles add depth. Captain Chris Goulding (calf) and Sean Macdonald are out.
Illawarra are 1-6 and have lost all four road games. Their attack is fine at 99.7 points a game, but they concede 108 a game, the most in the league, and that has risen to 115 a game during a three-game losing run. Kelan Martin, Tyler Harvey and Sam Froling can all score, so the Hawks can keep their end of the scoreboard moving. Mason Peatling and Todd Blanchfield are unavailable.
Previews disagree about the margin. One expects United to pull clear and cover the 10.5, while another thinks Illawarra’s talent makes the line too big and backs the Hawks at the start. That split is why we are not betting on the line. Both views point to plenty of points, though. United should score freely against a weak defence, and the Hawks have enough shooters to reach the high 90s even if they lose. A combined 200 is well within reach.
The risk is a slow, scrappy game. If United lock down defensively and the Hawks go cold from outside, the total can come in under the number.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Melbourne United to win - home side, two wins in a row, and Illawarra have not won on the road this season.
- Over 199.5 total points - our Best Bet, backed by Illawarra conceding 108 a game.
- Josh Oduro over 17.5 points - he scored 22 last start, and the Hawks’ poor defence and missed rotations should give him easy looks and second-chance points.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
The overs are the main bet at a normal stake. If you want a side, United head to head is too short to back alone, but it works as an SGM leg. Keep the SGM stake small.
Tip-off is 5:00pm AEDT on Sunday at John Cain Arena, the second game of a double-header.
