Best Bet
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 at $1.90. Chicago should win, but 6.5 points is a big start against a team with Tampa Bay’s defence. Since Week 5 the Buccaneers have allowed the fewest expected points per play in the league by some distance. They also lead the league with 16 takeaways and shut out Atlanta 16-0 last week. Rain and wind are possible at Soldier Field, which would also favour the underdog. Our projected margin is about six points, so this is a small edge, not a strong bet.
The reasoning
Chicago are in good form. They won 34-17 in Seattle on Monday night, beat the Patriots 30-24 the week before, and score 26.8 points a game. Caleb Williams has the attack playing well, and running back Kyle Monangai could return after missing the last four games. The Bears are now one of the favourites for the Super Bowl, and the market reflects that.
Tampa Bay have won three of their last four, and their only loss in that run came in overtime. Baker Mayfield is back at quarterback, and the running game is one of the best in the league. They ran for 324 yards against Atlanta in Week 7, which helps them control the clock. They have also faced several of the league’s best passing attacks, so their defensive numbers are not just the result of an easy schedule.
The danger is Chicago’s attack building a big lead early. Tampa Bay score only 22.2 points a game and could struggle to catch up. The total of 46.5 looks about right, but the weather and both defences point slightly to the under.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Chicago Bears to win - they are the stronger team at home and we expect them to win.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 - our projected margin is inside the line, and the Bucs’ takeaways can keep them close.
- Total points under 46.5 - two good defences and the chance of rain and wind suit a lower score.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
This is a small-stake game. Take the Buccaneers at the line with a small bet, and wait for the weather forecast and final injury reports before adding the under. A line of +7 would make the Bucs a better bet. The SGM needs a close Bears win, so keep the stake small. Kick-off is 12:20pm AEDT on Monday at Soldier Field.
