Best Bet
Under 52.5 total points at $1.90. The total opened around 49.5 and has risen past the key number of 51 because the Bengals have scored 30 or more in three straight games. Atlanta are scoring 21.4 points a game this season, and they were shut out 16-0 by Tampa Bay last week. Our projection is closer to 50 than 52.5. Both teams are in the top nine for pressure rate without blitzing much, which usually makes for longer drives and fewer big plays. This is our strongest bet in the game, but it is not a big one.
The reasoning
Cincinnati’s attack is in great form. Since Week 5 they rank first in the league for expected points added per play, and they are scoring 29.4 points a game. However, two of those recent big scores came against Miami and Tennessee, two weak defences, and they also had a bye in that period. The Bengals concede 22.6 points a game, so the Falcons can score some points, but Atlanta’s offence has been inconsistent.
Atlanta have lost three of their last four. Michael Penix Jr. threw four interceptions in the heavy rain at Tampa Bay, and that one result has hurt their standing more than it should. Before that they beat the 49ers 29-20. This is a neutral-site game at the Bernabeu, with both teams travelling, so neither has a home advantage.
The main danger to the under is Cincinnati starting fast. Joe Burrow and this attack can quickly push the score up, and that would also force Atlanta to throw more. If the Bengals score early, the under is in trouble.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Total points under 52.5 - we have the game closer to 50, and the Falcons’ scoring this season does not suit a high total.
- Cincinnati Bengals to win - they are the better team with the stronger attack, so we back them head to head rather than at the line.
- Atlanta Falcons +3.5 - our projected margin is about a field goal, and 3.5 points gives some cover on a key number.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Back the under at a normal stake. Legs 2 and 3 need a close Bengals win, so treat this SGM as a small-stake bet. If you prefer a single on the side, the Falcons +3.5 suits our projection, but it is a smaller play than the under. Kick-off is 1:30am AEDT on Monday at the Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid.
