Best Bet
Under 44.5 total points at $1.90. This total opened at about 47.5 when Kyler Murray was expected to play. It has dropped since he was ruled out with a hamstring injury, and we think it can go lower. Carson Wentz starts for a Minnesota attack that was already among the league’s least efficient. Their defence is the best in the NFL by several measures: points allowed, sacks and pressure on the quarterback. The Vikings have also gone under the total in 16 of their last 19 games.
The reasoning
Minnesota have won six of seven games by playing tight, low-scoring football. They have scored 20 points a game and conceded only 13.3. Most of their wins have finished with scores in the teens and low 20s. Without Murray, and with receiver Jauan Jennings also out, we expect them to play even more conservatively.
Buffalo’s attack is far stronger, averaging more than 33 points a game, and Josh Allen has a good record against this defensive coordinator. The worry for the Bills is their offensive line. Left tackle Dion Dawkins and left guard Alec Anderson both missed practice, and right tackle Spencer Brown is questionable. That is a big problem against a defence that blitzes more than anyone in the league. Their receivers are short-handed too: Josh Palmer is ruled out, and two others have had limited or missed sessions.
The risk to the under is Allen himself. If he gets time, Buffalo could score 30 on their own. Even so, Buffalo scoring in the mid-20s would leave Minnesota needing to keep pace with Wentz at quarterback, and that looks unlikely. The Bills are $1.54 to win, but with their line in doubt we prefer the total.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Under 44.5 total points - an elite Vikings defence, a backup quarterback, and a Bills offensive line missing starters.
- T.J. Hockenson over 4.5 receptions - Hockenson drew four targets in Wentz’s previous start, and short passes should be his main option against Buffalo’s pass rush.
- Carson Wentz to throw an interception - Buffalo’s pass rush is among the best in the league, and Wentz threw five interceptions in five starts last season.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
The under is our main bet, at a normal stake. The SGM legs fit together: a low-scoring game where Wentz throws short and makes a mistake under pressure. Keep the SGM stake small. Kickoff is 12:15pm AEDT on Tuesday.
