Best Bet
Over 40.5 total points at $1.90. Washington have conceded 28.7 points a game this season and rank near the bottom of the league on third down and in the red zone. Jayden Daniels is coming off his best game of the year, and he should have time to throw against an Eagles pass rush that is creating very little pressure. The Eagles are scoring only 18.1 a game, so Washington will need to carry the scoring, but 41 points is a low bar for a game involving this defence. We rate this a solid play rather than a standout, mainly because Philadelphia are without their starting quarterback.
The reasoning
The big news is that Jalen Hurts is not on the Eagles’ active roster. That is why the line has moved out to Washington -6.5, with the Commanders around $1.35 head-to-head and the Eagles around $3.25. Philadelphia are also without DeVonta Smith, who is one of five Eagles ruled out. They have lost five in a row, including a 38-21 home loss to Dallas last week in which they gave up 204 rushing yards. They are also on a short week.
Washington come off the bye. Daniels returned from an elbow injury a few weeks ago and threw for 300 yards and two touchdowns in the 23-17 loss to San Francisco. Their injury list is long. Terry McLaurin is out, Jacory Croskey-Merritt is on injured reserve, and Stefon Diggs is questionable. That should send more of the ball to Rachaad White, who played 69 per cent of the snaps in Week 6, and to tight end Chig Okonkwo, who has 129 receiving yards on 13 targets since Daniels returned. Daron Payne’s absence also weakens Washington’s defensive front.
Our sources split on the line. One sees Washington covering comfortably, while another priced the game much closer with Hurts playing and now passes on it. With that uncertainty, we prefer the total. The market sits at 40.5, and pre-injury numbers had it closer to 45. Washington’s defence is poor enough to give up points even to a backup-led attack.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Washington Commanders to win - fresh off the bye and at home, against an Eagles side without Hurts and on a five-game losing streak.
- Over 40.5 total points - Washington concede 28.7 a game, and Daniels should have time in the pocket.
- Rachaad White anytime touchdown - he handles most of Washington’s running back work, and the Eagles just gave up 204 rushing yards to Dallas.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
The over is the main bet at a normal stake. If you want to back a side, Washington -6.5 at $1.90 is the alternative, but with so many injuries on both teams we would keep that stake smaller. Keep the SGM stake small. Kick-off is 12:20pm AEDT at Northwest Stadium.
