Best Bet
Detroit Lions -3.5 at $1.90. The Lions are averaging 32.8 points a game, level with the best attack in the league, and they come off a bye at home. Green Bay have won three straight, so this is not an easy bet. We think the Lions are slightly better than a field goal, so this is a medium-confidence bet rather than a standout.
The reasoning
Detroit beat Arizona 45-21 in Week 5 before their bye. Their results have alternated between wins and losses, but their attack has been consistent. They have not been held below 26 points this season. Jahmyr Gibbs has nine touchdowns in five games and gets most of Detroit’s carries near the line. Amon-Ra St. Brown has 20 red-zone targets but has not scored since Week 3. He looks due.
Detroit’s weakness is their defence. They are conceding 29.6 points a game, one of the worst records in the NFL. That is why every Lions game this season has gone over, and their games have gone over in 13 of their last 18. Brian Branch’s return in the secondary should help them. Centre Cade Mays is also back.
Green Bay are scoring 21.2 points a game and conceding 20.8. Their wins over Dallas, Chicago and Tampa Bay were impressive, but those performances were mostly about defence. They are without linebacker Zaire Franklin, and their pass rush has been poor. That suits Jared Goff, who should get time to throw.
The total has risen to 53.5, so it no longer offers clear value on its own. It still fits well alongside a Lions win in a multi.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Detroit Lions -3.5 - our Best Bet, with the Lions at home after a bye and their attack scoring more than 30 points a game.
- Over 53.5 total points - every Lions game this season has gone over, and their defence concedes almost 30 points a game.
- Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown - he has nine touchdowns in five games and gets most of Detroit’s carries near the goal line.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Bet a standard amount on the Lions at the line. If you are worried about the half-point, the Lions in the first half is another option, because they usually start fast at home after a week off. St. Brown anytime touchdown is a good extra after his quiet run. Kick-off is 7:25am AEDT on Monday.
