The unbeaten Minnesota Vikings host the Indianapolis Colts at U.S. Bank Stadium, with kick-off at 4:00am AEDT on Monday. Minnesota are 5-0 and come off a bye. Indianapolis are 2-4 and lost to Tennessee last week.
Best Bet
Minnesota Vikings -6.5 at $1.90. Every preview we read backs Minnesota to cover. They have the best defence in the league on the numbers, they are rested after a bye, and the Colts are missing important players. We rate this as a strong bet.
The reasoning
Minnesota’s defence has allowed only 12.8 points a game. They rank first in points allowed and have the best red-zone defence, with opponents scoring touchdowns on only 25 per cent of trips inside the 20. They rank in the top five against both the run and the pass. The Vikings have also won 10 games in a row and covered the line in eight of them.
The Colts are in poor form. They have lost 11 of their last 13 games, and Daniel Jones was sacked six times and threw two interceptions against Tennessee. Indianapolis also concede 27.3 points a game. They will be without cornerback Sauce Gardner, linebacker CJ Allen, tight end Tyler Warren and receiver Anthony Gould, which hurts them on both sides of the ball.
The risk is Minnesota’s attack. They score only 21.8 points a game and have won some low-scoring games, including 9-3 against Chicago and 15-10 against Miami. If they do not score enough, the Colts could stay within a touchdown.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Minnesota Vikings -6.5 - our Best Bet, based on their defence and the Colts’ injuries.
- Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown - Gardner is out, which leaves the Colts short in the secondary. Jefferson has three touchdowns this season, and Indianapolis gave up six passing touchdowns in their road losses to Kansas City and Pittsburgh.
- Kyler Murray 200+ passing yards - Murray has thrown for 225 yards or more in back-to-back games, and the Colts allow the most yards per target in the league.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Vikings -6.5 is the main bet at a normal stake. We are avoiding the total because the previews disagree: one wants the overs at 41.5, while others expect Minnesota’s defence to keep the game low-scoring. Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown at around $1.92 is an option if you want a Colts angle, as he has scored in four of six games this season. Keep the SGM stake small. Kick-off is 4:00am AEDT on Monday.
