Best Bet
Under 47.5 total points at $1.90. Green Bay are 3.5-point favourites at home. Opinions are split on whether they cover, but there is more agreement that this game stays low-scoring. The Packers’ last four games have averaged about 35.5 combined points. Carolina have gone Under in six straight road games, and none of those games reached 40 points. This is a solid bet rather than a standout one.
The reasoning
Carolina come off a 43-13 home loss to Tampa Bay, and Bryce Young was sacked five times. That result hurt their ratings more than any other team’s last week. Green Bay lost 20-17 at Detroit, but before that beat the Cowboys 23-13 and the Bears 31-7. Jordan Love has been playing well, and the Panthers defence has conceded 27.7 points a game. That is the best case for Green Bay winning, and the Packers are the logical head-to-head pick.
The case for Carolina keeping it close is just as strong. The Panthers have covered the spread in 13 straight games after an outright loss. Last season, they followed a heavy home defeat by winning outright at Lambeau as big underdogs. Green Bay have a poor record against the spread as favourites. They also lost 35-14 to Atlanta at home in their most recent Thursday game as favourites. A one-score game is the most likely result, and that suits the Under.
The weather forecast is mild for late October in Green Bay, around 13 degrees with light wind, so conditions should not push the total either way.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Under 47.5 total points - our Best Bet, based on Green Bay’s recent low totals and Carolina’s run of road Unders.
- Green Bay Packers to win - the better quarterback form at home, against a Panthers side that was beaten heavily last week.
- Chuba Hubbard anytime touchdown - Hubbard has six touchdowns in six games, and Green Bay have already given up 10 touchdowns to running backs. Hubbard also had only seven carries last week, so should be fresh for the short turnaround.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
The Under is the main bet at a normal stake. If you want a side, Green Bay head-to-head at around $1.50 is safer than giving 3.5 points, given Carolina’s record of bouncing back after losses. Keep the SGM stake small. Kick-off is 11:15am AEDT on Friday.
