The Steelers and Saints meet at the Stade de France in Paris, with kick-off at 12:30am AEDT on Monday. Pittsburgh are 4-2 and around 3.5-point favourites. New Orleans are 2-4 but come off a 34-27 win over the Giants.
Best Bet
Over 44.5 total points at $1.90. The opinions on the line are split, but the total looks clearer. The Saints have conceded 29.7 points a game, and the Steelers have a strong running game. We expect a game in the high 40s. This is a solid bet rather than our strongest of the week, because neutral-venue games can be harder to predict.
The reasoning
New Orleans’ defence is the main problem. They rank last in run defence on advanced numbers and allow the highest rushing success rate in the league. Pittsburgh rank second in rushing efficiency, so they should be able to move the ball on the ground and score.
The Saints can score as well. They average 25.3 points a game, rank eighth on third down and second for touchdowns in the red zone. They also scored 34 against the Giants last week. That means both teams should contribute to the total.
The danger is the Saints’ defence getting players back. Their official report has nobody ruled out, and the two linebackers who missed last week are expected to return. Pittsburgh are without a cornerback and a receiver, and they only arrived in Paris on Friday morning, so a slow start is possible. That is the main risk to the overs.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Over 44.5 total points - our Best Bet, based on the Saints conceding 29.7 points a game.
- Pittsburgh Steelers to win - most previews we read have Pittsburgh winning, by around three points, because of their stronger running game and better defence.
- Jaylen Warren anytime touchdown - the Saints have allowed 12 touchdowns to running backs in six games, and Warren ran for 127, 93 and 101 yards across Weeks 3 to 5.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Over 44.5 is the main bet at a normal stake. If you want more on Warren, 60 or more rushing yards is available at around $1.67, and he has reached that in 11 of his last 23 games. We are leaving the line alone because the previews are split between the Steelers and the Saints with the start. Keep the SGM stake small. Kick-off is 12:30am AEDT on Monday.
