Best Bet
Over 48.5 total points at $1.90. This is one of our stronger NFL bets this week. The Raiders are averaging 27 points a game and conceding 27. Four of their six games have gone over. The Rams also have a good attack, while their pass defence has been poor for the past fortnight. The game is indoors in a dome, so weather should not slow the scoring.
The reasoning
Las Vegas have scored plenty of points, but their defence has been one of the worst in the league over the past month. They lost 33-30 to Buffalo last week and 45-17 to New England the week before. In the past four weeks, they have ranked near the bottom of the league against the pass, which suits Matthew Stafford. He has thrown for 250 yards or more in four of six games this season, including two games over 380.
The Rams are under pressure after losing three of their last four, including a 16-18 home loss to Arizona as big favourites. Their losses have mostly been close, and their attack remains one of the better units in the NFL. Their pass defence is the problem, having allowed some of the highest yards per dropback in the league over the past two weeks. That gives Brock Bowers and the Raiders’ passing game a good opportunity. Bowers has scored in six of his past eight games.
Puka Nacua is listed as questionable with a calf injury, and that is the main team news to check. If he plays, the Rams should score freely. If he misses, the over still has support from the Raiders’ attack. The Raiders are missing receiver Dont’e Thornton Jr. and tight end Carter Runyon, but they have enough targets elsewhere.
On the line, the Rams are 3.5-point favourites. We have them winning, but the Raiders have covered in five of six games this season, including all three at home. That makes the line too risky, so we prefer the total.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Over 48.5 total points - our Best Bet, with both defences struggling against the pass and the game played indoors.
- Matthew Stafford 250+ passing yards - he has reached that mark in four of six games this season, and the Raiders have struggled against the pass.
- Brock Bowers anytime touchdown - he has scored in six of his past eight games, and the Rams have struggled to defend the pass.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Make the over your biggest bet in this game. The SGM legs all depend on a high-scoring game, so they suit the same view. If you want a side, a small bet on the Rams -3.5 is reasonable if Nacua is confirmed to play. Kick-off is 7:25am AEDT on Monday.
