Best Bet
Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 at $1.90. Joe Burrow comes off a bye after throwing four touchdowns against Miami, while Baltimore may again be without Lamar Jackson. If Jackson misses, we think the Bengals have the better quarterback and only need to stay within a field goal. It is a fair bet, but its value depends on the late team news.
The reasoning
Jackson missed last week with an ankle injury, and Tyler Huntley is listed to start again. Baltimore managed only 10 points in their 13-10 loss in Cleveland with Huntley at quarterback. Their attack is much less dangerous without Jackson. They had been averaging 26 points a game, but most of those points came with Jackson playing.
Cincinnati are averaging 25.6 points a game and conceding 21.8, almost the same as Baltimore’s 22. The Bengals’ earlier losses were narrow defeats to Pittsburgh and Jacksonville, and they beat Miami 31-24 before the bye. Ja’Marr Chase has scored in four straight games and remains Burrow’s main target.
Early money has come for Cincinnati, and the Bengals win outright at around $1.88, which shows how close this game looks. We prefer taking the 2.5 points for a little more protection. If Jackson is cleared to play, Baltimore become much stronger, and we would reduce our bet or pass on the Bengals.
The total of 50.5 looks slightly high if Huntley starts, because Baltimore have struggled to score with him at quarterback. That is why we include the under as a smaller bet.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 - our Best Bet, with Burrow fresh from a bye and Baltimore’s quarterback situation unclear.
- Under 50.5 total points - Baltimore scored only 10 points with Huntley last week, and the game is expected to be close.
- Ja’Marr Chase anytime touchdown - he has scored in each of his last four games.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Wait for Baltimore’s final injury report before betting. If Huntley starts, bet a normal amount on the Bengals +2.5. If Jackson plays, reduce your stake or skip the bet. Keep the SGM small, because its first two legs both depend on Jackson missing. Kick-off is 4:00am AEDT on Monday.
