Best Bet
Over 42.5 total points at $1.90. Kansas City are 5-0 and averaging 28 points a game. Seattle are scoring close to 25 a game at home. A total in the low 40s looks too low for these two attacks, so this is our main bet. We rate it as solid, but not as one of our strongest plays.
The reasoning
The Chiefs arrive unbeaten after a 22-6 win over the Chargers, and their defence has allowed only 16.6 points a game. Despite that record, Seattle are favoured by 2.5 at home. The market is giving the Seahawks credit for their overall quality and for one of the best defences in the league. Seattle have 16 sacks and one of the highest pressure rates in the NFL, and Patrick Mahomes has been far less effective when he is under pressure.
Seattle’s recent results are worse than their performances. They lost 17-14 in Denver despite gaining 186 more yards, and three turnovers cost them that game. They have lost three games by three points or less this season. They have also played in plenty of high-scoring games, including 31-33 against Washington and 29-32 against San Francisco.
Kansas City are missing Rashee Rice again, which weakens their attack slightly. Seattle’s running back group is also unsettled because Zach Charbonnet’s status is unclear. Check the late team news for Seattle’s quarterback, because there are differing reports on his elbow injury. A late quarterback change would make us less keen on the over.
On the side, we lean slightly to Seattle at home. Since 2020, they are 7-2 straight up at Lumen Field when favoured by a field goal or less. The 2.5-point line is too close to bet with confidence.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Over 42.5 total points - our Best Bet, with the Chiefs averaging 28 points a game and Seattle playing in several high-scoring games.
- Seattle Seahawks to win - Seattle are favourites at home and have a strong record when they are small favourites at Lumen Field.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime touchdown - he has scored in four of six games this season and has six touchdowns across his last five.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Bet a normal amount on the over. Keep the SGM stake small, because the Seattle win leg relies on a narrow margin. If you only want one prop, Smith-Njigba to score is the best option. Kick-off is 11:20am AEDT on Monday.
