Best Bet
San Francisco 49ers -7.5 at $1.90. This is one of our stronger plays of the week. The 49ers are unbeaten and at home, and Washington’s defence has struggled to stop anyone.
The reasoning
San Francisco are 5-0 and have covered the line in four of those games. They are scoring 30.8 points a game and conceding 18.6, with an offensive success rate above 51%. Last week they beat the Super Bowl champion Seahawks 32-29 in Seattle without Nick Bosa or Kyle Juszczyk. Brock Purdy found Mike Evans seven times for 113 yards and a touchdown. Evans has three touchdowns in his last five games.
Washington are 1-3-1 and conceding almost 30 points a game. Last week they drew 27-27 with the Giants after failing to kick a winning field goal in overtime, and that was without Stefon Diggs. Jayden Daniels is on the injury list again. Their attack averages 23 points a game, with a success rate below 40%, so it is hard to see them matching San Francisco for four quarters.
The previews we checked agree on the side. One makes the 49ers 11-point winners, and another describes a big class gap and expects the Commanders to struggle on the road. Where they differ is the total. One leans slightly to the overs, while another expects Washington to struggle to score, so we are leaving the total alone.
The main risk is Bosa. If he misses again, the margin may be a little tighter, although the 49ers won without him last week.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- San Francisco 49ers -7.5 - our Best Bet, against a defence conceding almost 30 a game.
- Mike Evans anytime touchdown - seven catches for 113 yards and a score last week, and three touchdowns in his last five games.
- Brandin Cooks anytime touchdown - he also scored against Seattle last week and is part of the attack we expect to cover.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
The 49ers line is the main bet at a normal stake. If you want a bigger price, a winning margin of 14 or more was available at $2.65 for those who expect a blowout. Keep the SGM stake small.
Kick-off is 11:15am AEDT on Tuesday at Levi’s Stadium. Check the final injury report for Bosa and Daniels.
