Best Bet
Los Angeles Chargers +7.5 at $1.90. Kansas City should win, but this is an AFC West game, the line is more than a touchdown, and the Chargers have kept most of their losses close. This is a speculative play and should be staked that way.
The reasoning
The Chiefs are 4-0 and come off a bye. They have scored 29.5 points a game and conceded 19.2, and they beat the Broncos, Colts, Dolphins and Raiders. That record looks strong, but only Denver stands out as a quality opponent, and the Chiefs failed to cover a 4.5-point line in their last game, a 30-27 win over Las Vegas. Rashee Rice and tackle Josh Simmons are out, and L’Jarius Sneed is questionable.
The Chargers are 0-5 and have not covered a line all season, which is the strongest case against this bet. Their attack averages only 16.8 points, and Justin Herbert was under constant pressure in last week’s 23-17 loss to Denver. Joe Alt and Kayode Awosika are out on the offensive line, and safety Derwin James is out. Still, their last two losses were by six and seven points, and they won both meetings with Kansas City last season.
Previews of this game are split. One model makes the Chiefs about 10-point winners and backs them at the line with the over. Another expects a low-scoring, tight game with the Chargers covering. A third projects the Chiefs by roughly six. We lean towards a Chiefs win by less than a touchdown. Teams coming off a bye can start slowly, and the total has dropped to around 41.5, which suggests a game without many points.
The danger is obvious. If the Chargers’ depleted line collapses again, Kansas City can win by 10 or more. That is why the stake should stay small.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Los Angeles Chargers +7.5 - our Best Bet, expecting a close divisional game.
- Kenneth Walker III anytime touchdown - he has scored four touchdowns in his last two games and is the favourite to score here.
- Quentin Johnston over 36.5 receiving yards - he has cleared that mark in 11 of his last 18 games, including 40 and 44 in his last two, and the Chargers are likely to be throwing from behind.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Keep the Chargers line to a small stake, because they have yet to cover this season. For a safer angle, the Walker touchdown leg can be bet on its own. The SGM is a fun bet and should be staked accordingly.
Kick-off is 7:25am AEDT on Monday at Arrowhead Stadium. Check the final injury report for Sneed and the Chargers’ offensive line.
