Best Bet
Over 39.5 total points at $1.90. This game is close to a coin flip on the result, but both defences have weaknesses the other offence can exploit. We think this total is too low.
The reasoning
Philadelphia have lost three straight and haven’t scored more than 24 points in a game this season. Their offence ranks near the bottom of the league on most efficiency measures. They scored 17 against Jacksonville without Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Marquise Brown. Barkley and Smith could return this week, which would make a big difference. The defence is not much better. The Eagles have given up 300 passing yards and 400 total yards in each of their last two games.
Carolina have had a bye after scoring 32 against Detroit and have topped 30 points in three of four games. Bryce Young leads the league in passing, and Tetairoa McMillan caught 14 of 16 targets for 192 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions. The Panthers also have weaknesses on defence. Both starting cornerbacks, Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, are on injured reserve, and the backups were targeted heavily by Detroit.
The market can’t separate these teams, and we can’t either. The Panthers are rested, while the Eagles have played five straight and have home ground. Our projection is about 45 points, which is well above the market total.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Over 39.5 total points - our Best Bet, for the reasons above.
- Bryce Young 1+ passing touchdown - he leads the league in passing, and the Eagles have been giving up 300 passing yards a game recently.
- Carolina Panthers 20+ points - they have scored 30-plus in three of four games and face a defence that has struggled for weeks.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
The Over is the main bet, at a normal stake. If Barkley and Smith are confirmed for Philadelphia, it gets stronger. We are leaving the result alone, as the analysis we used is split between the two teams. The SGM legs all depend on plenty of points, so they fit together, but keep the stake small.
Kick-off is 4:00am AEDT on Monday at Lincoln Financial Field. Check the Eagles’ injury report on Saturday.
