Best Bet
New York Giants +0.5 at $1.90. This is one of our stronger NFL plays of the week. The Saints are 1-4, are conceding 30 points a game and are missing key players, yet they are favourites on the road. Any Giants win pays.
The reasoning
The Giants are 3-1-1 and have covered the line in four of five games. Their last result was a 27-all draw with Washington. They are averaging close to 22 points a game and conceding about 21. New Orleans have lost four of five, most recently 23-13 at home to Minnesota, and are conceding just over 30 points a game.
The matchup that matters most is the Giants’ pass rush against the Saints’ pass protection. New York rank fifth in pass-rush win rate, while New Orleans rank 26th in pass-block win rate. That gets worse without left tackle Kelvin Banks. The Saints are also without running back Travis Etienne and have rushed for fewer than 100 yards in four games. That makes it hard for them to attack New York’s weakness against the run, which leaves them throwing behind a weak offensive line.
Jameis Winston has thrown for 576 yards and six touchdowns in his last two games for the Giants, and the Saints’ starting defensive backs have struggled all season. Alvin Kamara was listed as questionable last week, so check the final injury report.
Our projection is about a five-point Giants win, against a market that has the Saints as narrow favourites.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- New York Giants +0.5 - our Best Bet, for the reasons above.
- Total points Over 45.5 - the Saints play at the fastest pace in the league and concede 30 a game, and Winston has been throwing the ball well.
- Jameis Winston 1+ passing touchdown - he has six touchdown passes in his last two games, against a secondary that has been struggling.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Giants +0.5 is the main bet, at a normal stake. The Over is a reasonable single at a smaller stake. The SGM needs the Giants to win and both teams to score well, so keep it to a small stake.
Kick-off is 4:00am AEDT on Monday at MetLife Stadium. Check the Saints’ final injury report, especially for Kamara.
