Best Bet
New England Patriots head to head at $1.27. The Patriots are the better team and are playing at home. The Jets defence is good enough to keep this close, so we prefer the head-to-head price to the 7.5-point line.
The reasoning
New England are 3-2 and scored 45 against the Raiders last week. Drake Maye has thrown for more than 600 yards and seven touchdowns in his last two games after a slow start to the season. The Patriots also beat the Jets by 13 and 32 points in their two meetings last season. They average 22 points a game and concede under 19.
The Jets are 2-3 and score only about 19 points a game, and their offence ranks 26th for total yards. Their defence is the reason this may stay close. It allows about 19 points a game, ranks fifth in the league for points allowed and keeps opponents out of the end zone well. One analysis we looked at projects a 10-point Patriots win, while another expects the Jets to keep it within a touchdown. That split is why we are not taking a side on the line.
The Patriots’ secondary is a concern. Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III both missed last week, and the Jets would have more room to throw if they are out again.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- New England Patriots to win - our Best Bet, for the reasons above.
- Drake Maye 1+ passing touchdown - he has seven touchdown passes in his last two games.
- Under 43.5 total points - both defences rank in the league’s top half, the Jets offence has struggled, and the Patriots and Jets have combined for a 7-3 record to the Under this season. This is the least certain leg, because our other projection has the total right on 44.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
The Patriots head to head is short, so it is best used as a multi leg or a larger, safer single rather than a value bet. If you want a bigger price, the 7.5-point line is the alternative, but we see it as close to a coin flip. Keep the SGM stake small, because the total could go either way.
Kick-off is 4:00am AEDT on Monday at Gillette Stadium. Check the Patriots’ cornerback news on Saturday.
