Best Bet
Denver Broncos +2.5 at $1.90. Denver are at home on a short week, their pass rush is in form, and Seattle are coming off a loss with four turnovers. We’d take the start with the home side, but this is a solid bet, not one of our strongest.
The reasoning
Seattle opened as 2.5-point road favourites, and the early money has come in for Denver, so we wouldn’t be surprised to see the line drop towards a field goal or lower. Take +2.5 while it’s available.
Denver beat the Chargers on Sunday, and their defence sacked Justin Herbert five times. They have already beaten the Rams and the Jaguars at Mile High this season. Seattle’s quarterback, Sam Darnold, has thrown for only 168 and 195 yards in his last two games, completing about 60 per cent of his passes, and has been sacked eight times in that stretch. Seattle lost to San Francisco on Sunday with four turnovers, three of them fumbles. They will also be without running back Zach Charbonnet, who won’t be back from injury in time.
Neither offence has been efficient. Both teams rank near the bottom of the league in third-down conversions. Bo Nix has averaged under six yards per pass attempt in four of Denver’s five games. The extended forecast for Denver on Thursday is rain and strong wind gusts, which would make passing even harder.
The main risk to the Broncos bet is Denver’s own offence. If Nix can’t move the ball, a Seattle field goal could decide it. With rain, wind and two struggling offences, though, points should be hard to come by, and a start of 2.5 is valuable in a game like that.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (2 legs):
- Denver Broncos +2.5 - our Best Bet, for the reasons above.
- Total points Under 42.5 - two offences near the bottom on third down, Darnold under pressure, Nix averaging under six yards per pass attempt, and rain and wind forecast.
We have kept this to two legs. We couldn’t find a player line or third market we were confident in, so we didn’t add a leg just to make it bigger.
Combined price: $3.60
How we’d play it
Denver +2.5 is the main bet, at a normal or slightly smaller stake. The Under works well as a single, and the two-leg SGM suits a low-scoring game where Denver stay close or win. Check the weather and the injury list on the day, as wind would make the Under stronger.
Kick-off is 11:15am AEDT on Friday.
